Title
The global, regional, and national burden of cancer, 1990–2023, with forecasts to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023
Date Issued
11 October 2025
Access level
metadata only access
Resource Type
Controlled Vocabulary for Resource Type Genres::texto::revista::artículo::artículo original
Author(s)
Force L.M.
Force L.M.
Force L.M.
Kocarnik J.M.
May M.L.
Bhangdia K.
Crist A.
Penberthy L.
Pritchett N.
Acheson A.
Deitesfeld L.
A B.
Aalruz H.
Abbas N.
Abbas N.
Abbasalipour bashash M.
Abd Al Magied A.H.A.
Abd ElHafeez S.
Abdalla A.N.
Abdalla M.A.
Abdel-Rahman W.M.
Abdi P.
Abdisa W.M.
Abdissa D.
Abdollahi A.
Abdoun M.
Abdoun M.
Abdous A.
Abdullahi A.
Abdullahi A.
Abebe M.
Abedi A.
Abidi S.H.
Abie A.
Abiodun O.
Aboagye R.G.
Aboagye R.G.
Abolhassani H.
Abolhassani H.
Abonie U.S.
Abreu L.G.
Abubakar A.K.
Abubakar A.K.
Abubakar B.
Abubakar B.
Abu-Gharbieh E.
Abu-Gharbieh E.
Abukhadijah H.J.
Aburuz S.
Aburuz S.
Abu-Zaid A.
Abu-Zaid A.
Achar R.R.
Acuna J.M.
Acuna J.M.
Adams L.C.
Adams L.C.
Adamu L.H.
Adamu L.H.
Addo I.Y.
Addo I.Y.
Adedokun K.A.
Adedokun K.A.
Adegoke N.A.
Adegoke N.A.
Adekanmbi V.
Adesiyan I.M.
Adewuyi H.O.
Adewuyi H.O.
Adiga U.
Adnani Q.E.S.
Adoma P.O.
Adzigbli L.A.
Afifi A.M.
Afolabi A.A.
Afrashteh F.
Afrooghe A.
Afzal M.S.
Agampodi S.B.
Aggarwal N.
Agide F.D.
Agostinis Sobrinho C.
Agostinis Sobrinho C.
Agyemang-Duah W.
Ahinkorah B.O.
Ahmad A.
Ahmad D.
Ahmad D.
Ahmad F.
Ahmad F.
Ahmad K.
Ahmad M.M.
Ahmad S.
Ahmad S.
Ahmad T.
Ahmadi E.
Ahmadzade A.M.
Ahmadzade M.
Ahmed A.
Ahmed A.
Ahmed A.
Ahmed A.
Ahmed G.S.
Ahmed I.
Ahmed I.
Ahmed L.A.
Ahmed M.S.
Ahmed M.S.
Ahmed M.B.
Ahmed M.B.
Ahmed N.
Ahmed S.A.
Ajala D.E.
Ajami M.
Akhigbe R.E.
Akinosoglou K.
Akinosoglou K.
Al Awaidy S.
Al Awaidy S.
Al Hamad H.
Al Hamad H.
Al Hasan S.M.
Al Omari O.
Al Qadire M.
Al Thaher Y.
Al Thaher Y.
Al Zaabi O.A.M.
Alam K.
Alam Z.
Alansari A.
Al-Ashwal F.Y.
Al-Ashwal F.Y.
University of Washington School of Medicine
St. Jude Children's Research Hospital
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
Amity University
Al-Zaytoonah University of Jordan
Chinese Academy of Sciences
City University of Hong Kong
Pasteur Institute of Iran
Ajman University
Alexandria University
Umm Al-Qura University
Hull York Medical School
University of Sharjah
Memorial University of Newfoundland
Jimma University
Diabetes Research Center
IUMS Minimally Invasive Surgery Research Center
Université Ferhat Abbas Sétif 1
University Hospital of Setif
Islamic Azad University, Karaj Branch
Bayero University
Federal University, Wukari
Dilla University
Zanjan University of Medical Sciences (ZUMS)
Nazarbayev University School of Medicine
Bahir Dar University
Babcock University
University of Health and Allied Sciences, Ghana
UNSW Sydney
Research Center for Immunodeficiencies
Karolinska Institutet
University of Northumbria
Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais
St. Luke’s International University
National Cancer Center Japan
Usmanu Danfodiyo University
Nigerian Institute of Medical Research
University of Sharjah
The University of Jordan
Hamad Medical Corporation
United Arab Emirates University
The University of Jordan
Alfaisal University
University of Tennessee Health Science Center
JSS Academy of Higher Education & Research
American University of Antigua
Florida International University
Technische Universität München
Stanford University
Federal University Dutse
Bayero University
The University of Sydney School of Medicine
UNSW Sydney
Roswell Park Cancer Institute
King Saud University
The University of Sydney
The University of Sydney
John Sealy School of Medicine
University of Medical Sciences
University of Ibadan
University of Johannesburg
Apollo Institute of Medical Sciences & Research, Chittoor
Universitas Padjadjaran
University of Education, Winneba
University of Health and Allied Sciences, Ghana
College of Medicine and Life Sciences
Technical Services Directorate
School of Medicine (IUMS)
Experimental Medicine Research Center
University of Management and Technology Lahore
International Vaccine Institute, Seoul
Maharishi Markandeshwar (Deemed to be University), Mullana
Wachemo University
Klaipėdos Universitetas
Instituto Politécnico da Guarda
Queen’s University
University of Technology Sydney
Shaqra University
School of Medicine and Psychology
Public Health Foundation of India
National Institute of Health Pakistan
Organisation Mondiale de la Santé
Qassim University
The University of Jordan
Abasyn University
Lebanese American University
Zhejiang University School of Public Health
School of Medicine
Mashhad University of Medical Sciences
Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences
International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research Bangladesh
Uppsala Universitet
Institute of Endemic Diseases Sudan
Universität Basel
University of Human Development
Alpha Genomics Private Limited
Korea Research Institute of Standards and Science
United Arab Emirates University
Majmaah University
University of Duhok
College of Medicine and Public Health
Jimma University
Haramaya University
The Brody School of Medicine
Bowen University
Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences
Ladoke Akintola University
University of Patras
University General Hospital of Patras
Ministry of Health Oman
Middle East
Hamad Medical Corporation
Rumailah Hospital
Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis
Sultan Qaboos University
Al Al-Bayt University
Philadelphia University
Cardiff University
Sultan Qaboos University
Murdoch Business School
Hamdan Bin Mohammed Smart University
Hamad Medical Corporation
Al-Ayen Iraqi University, AUIQ
University of Science and Technology (USTY)
Abstract
Background: Cancer is a leading cause of death globally. Accurate cancer burden information is crucial for policy planning, but many countries do not have up-to-date cancer surveillance data. To inform global cancer-control efforts, we used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2023 framework to generate and analyse estimates of cancer burden for 47 cancer types or groupings by age, sex, and 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023, cancer burden attributable to selected risk factors from 1990 to 2023, and forecasted cancer burden up to 2050. Methods: Cancer estimation in GBD 2023 used data from population-based cancer registration systems, vital registration systems, and verbal autopsies. Cancer mortality was estimated using ensemble models, with incidence informed by mortality estimates and mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Prevalence estimates were generated from modelled survival estimates, then multiplied by disability weights to estimate years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were estimated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the GBD standard life expectancy at the age of death. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We used the GBD 2023 comparative risk assessment framework to estimate cancer burden attributable to 44 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. To forecast cancer burden from 2024 to 2050, we used the GBD 2023 forecasting framework, which included forecasts of relevant risk factor exposures and used Socio-demographic Index as a covariate for forecasting the proportion of each cancer not affected by these risk factors. Progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 3.4 aim to reduce non-communicable disease mortality by a third between 2015 and 2030 was estimated for cancer. Findings: In 2023, excluding non-melanoma skin cancers, there were 18·5 million (95% uncertainty interval 16·4 to 20·7) incident cases of cancer and 10·4 million (9·65 to 10·9) deaths, contributing to 271 million (255 to 285) DALYs globally. Of these, 57·9% (56·1 to 59·8) of incident cases and 65·8% (64·3 to 67·6) of cancer deaths occurred in low-income to upper-middle-income countries based on World Bank income group classifications. Cancer was the second leading cause of deaths globally in 2023 after cardiovascular diseases. There were 4·33 million (3·85 to 4·78) risk-attributable cancer deaths globally in 2023, comprising 41·7% (37·8 to 45·4) of all cancer deaths. Risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 72·3% (57·1 to 86·8) from 1990 to 2023, whereas overall global cancer deaths increased by 74·3% (62·2 to 86·2) over the same period. The reference forecasts (the most likely future) estimate that in 2050 there will be 30·5 million (22·9 to 38·9) cases and 18·6 million (15·6 to 21·5) deaths from cancer globally, 60·7% (41·9 to 80·6) and 74·5% (50·1 to 104·2) increases from 2024, respectively. These forecasted increases in deaths are greater in low-income and middle-income countries (90·6% [61·0 to 127·0]) compared with high-income countries (42·8% [28·3 to 58·6]). Most of these increases are likely due to demographic changes, as age-standardised death rates are forecast to change by –5·6% (–12·8 to 4·6) between 2024 and 2050 globally. Between 2015 and 2030, the probability of dying due to cancer between the ages of 30 years and 70 years was forecasted to have a relative decrease of 6·5% (3·2 to 10·3). Interpretation: Cancer is a major contributor to global disease burden, with increasing numbers of cases and deaths forecasted up to 2050 and a disproportionate growth in burden in countries with scarce resources. The decline in age-standardised mortality rates from cancer is encouraging but insufficient to meet the SDG target set for 2030. Effectively and sustainably addressing cancer burden globally will require comprehensive national and international efforts that consider health systems and context in the development and implementation of cancer-control strategies across the continuum of prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. Funding: Gates Foundation, St Jude Children's Research Hospital, and St Baldrick's Foundation.
Start page
1565
End page
1586
Volume
406
Issue
10512
Scopus EID
2-s2.0-105018210233
PubMed ID
Source
Lancet
ISSN of the container
1474547X
Sources of information: Scopus Directorio de Producción Científica